The Russia-backed Wagner Group announced its departure from Mali after over three and a half years of operations against Islamic extremists. Despite this, Russia will maintain a mercenary presence through its Africa Corps, a state-controlled paramilitary force, which affirmed that Wagner’s exit would not alter the Russian contingent in Mali. Wagner claimed success in bringing regional capitals under the control of the Malian army and eliminating armed militants, including key commanders.
Mali, alongside Burkina Faso and Niger, has faced a persistent insurgency involving groups affiliated with al-Qaida and ISIS. As Western influence diminished, Russia capitalized on the opportunity by offering military support, initially through Wagner. However, the group’s trajectory changed following the death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in a plane crash after a revolt against President Vladimir Putin. The Russian defense ministry has since been repositioning its forces, with the Africa Corps intended to serve as a successor to Wagner.
Currently, an estimated 2,000 mercenaries operate in Mali, although it’s unclear how many are from Wagner and how many belong to the Africa Corps. Security analysts indicate that negotiations are underway for Wagner mercenaries to transition into the Africa Corps. The Malian army, alongside Russian forces, has faced setbacks, drawing international scrutiny due to allegations of human rights abuses perpetrated by both factions.
The decision for Wagner’s withdrawal may be linked to recent heavy losses against the al-Qaida-affiliated group JNIM, suggesting potential internal disputes over the mission’s efficacy. The transition to Africa Corps is expected to shift Russia’s strategy from direct combat support to a focus on training and logistical support for the Malian military.
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