The Iranian influence in the region, particularly in Lebanon, has become increasingly precarious, especially following Israel’s military actions against Hezbollah, the militant group founded in part by Iran. While Lebanese leaders publicly condemn Israel and support Palestine, many outside Hezbollah’s Shiite base welcome Israel’s dismantling of Iranian power in Lebanon. Notably, Hezbollah has refrained from committing to the current Israel-Iran conflict. A recent statement praised Iran’s resilience while implying that Iran must handle its challenges independently.
In the prior escalations, Iran observed as Israel dismantled Hezbollah’s operations in southern Lebanon, assassinated key leaders, and caused significant civilian casualties. The sentiment among Hezbollah and even within the Lebanese Shiite community is that Iran abandoned them during critical moments of conflict, leading to a stronger sense of resentment.
In Syria, the political landscape has shifted with new leadership as Ahmad al-Sharaa replaced the Iran-aligned Assad regime, signaling a possible thaw in relations with the U.S. and even Israel. Meanwhile, concerns loom for Arab leaders regarding potential Iranian retaliation against their territories or U.S. military installations.
Yoel Guzansky, from the Institute for National Security Studies, forecasted that Iran might respond in a “face-saving” manner reminiscent of its retaliation following the U.S. assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020. This ongoing dynamic highlights the complexity and fragility of Iran’s influence in the region amidst evolving political alliances and military confrontations.
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